KVH

I write up investment theses occasionally, presented at the regularly-held Regarded Men of San Francisco Investor's Club. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indeed – the future is going to be very strange!

Investor's Club Decks

Inelastic man — first slide

Inelastic man

November 10, 2025

Thesis: Economic value and political power go to those who control bottlenecks in civilization. The broad prosperity and democracy of the recent centuries is a result of skilled human labor being the dominant bottleneck. With the arrival of AI, it is unclear what the new bottleneck will be -- we should expect a period of unbounded and accelerated growth. The value of this growth will accrue most immediately to leading AI co shareholders, aka marketer's new most-coveted demographic: SARAs -- the Soon-to-be Absurdly Rich Autists.

Strategy: In a world of abundance, own things that are inherently scarce, and specifically things disproportionately valued by AI shareholders: unique IP, Bay Area land, crypto, etc.

Highlights:

Decacorp — first slide

Decacorp

October 21, 2024

Thesis: AI is not like human intelligence. AI eliminates or greatly reduces all traditional barriers to firm size -- expect leading AI / robotics companies to grow to unprecedented scale, up to 10% of GDP (the fabled Decacorp), with $25T-100T market cap.

Strategy: All you have to do to become unfathomably wealthy is be significantly allocated in the eventual Big Winner of AI/Robotics, one of: GOOG, TSLA, OpenAI, Anthropic, newco, TBD. Also, for now, own anything that supplies AI.

Highlights:

The Coming AI Bubble — first slide

The Coming AI Bubble

January 18, 2024

Thesis: We are very early to the AI boom, ~0.1% penetration. Invest now. Vertically Integrated Modelers (VIMs) -- companies that own the data loop and train models against it -- will capture the value in AI eventually.

Strategy: Full port chip stocks and emergent VIMs.

Highlights:

American Bull — first slide

American Bull

February 15, 2019

Thesis: Shale changes the global order, America comes out the big (relative) winner, rest of world at risk.

Strategy: All-in on American equities. Avoid foreign holdings.

Highlights:

Macro Strategy — first slide

Macro Strategy

December 16, 2017

Thesis: Market crashes occur when there is negative momentum AND bad macro.

Strategy: All signs green. Stay invested in the market.

Highlights:

Crypto currency — first slide

Crypto currency

May 6, 2017

Thesis: It's early in the crypto adoption curve. Expect it to eventually reach the market cap of gold (OoM).

Strategy: Buy mix of cryptocurrencies, up to 5-20% of net worth.

Highlights: