Fermi Paradox for Startups

Fermi paradox for business ideas -- for when you come up with a brilliant business idea and are wondering how no one on the planet has ever thought of it before.

Why doesn’t this business/product exist yet?

ReasonConstraintExamplesRelative likelihood
No one has thought of the idea beforeCreativity Nuclear fission in 1910 ~0% (Only happens once per idea!)
People have thought of the idea, but no one with the resources/ambition/skills required to attempt itInitiative Nuclear fission in 1936 5%
People have attempted it but no one has succeeded in building a working solutionTechnology Heavier-than-air flight in 1890 5%
People have succeeded in building a solution, but no one wants itMarket - Existence Segway in 2001 10%
People have built a solution that customers will pay for but there is no effective distribution channelDistribution Ride sharing in 2000 5%
People have built a profitable solution, the market where it works is just smallMarket - Scale Segway in 2017 25%
You just aren’t paying attentionYour own ignorance Every idea you haven’t heard of 50% 

Successful startups typically come out of “Initiative” stage, by bringing hustle and cash to new technology, or the “Distribution” stage, by bringing hustle and cash to new distribution channels. The catch is that they only account for 10% of ideas you think of!